Where is online media going?

by Kevin on January 5, 2009

internet_dogI’m not sure. It left before I got a chance to ask. Either way, I’m sure it’s coming back. I heard something about a Taco Bell run, although I didn’t even get a chance to put in my order.

This is an interesting time for all things online. People could argue, and currently are, that we are on the verge of another web meltdown, this time due to the lack of ad dollars to go around. I think we need to be careful though with what we are referring to when we say “ad dollars.” Or rather, I’ll be careful since I’m the one who said it.

“Did marketing savants really believe that spending wildly to place their brands inside “The Sims” was going to pay off in money that is made out of paper, and spendable here on Earth? It’s doubtful. They just got caught up in the sheer newness of plastering their logo anywhere and everywhere, and then made up some bullshit about “branding” to explain the expense. Well that shit is over now, suckas!”

Spending money online falls into 1 of 2 categories. Acquisition or some form of branding - though it’s very difficult to build a brand completely online. The branding piece is more likely to be in the form of what marketing people call share of voice. That is, to make sure their brand is part of the online conversation.

Acquisition is easy. If you sell something that is capable of being purchased online, you want to spend ad dollars online to drive traffic to your transactional website, collect PI and process credit cards. Share of voice is also fairly easy, you just choose some venues and throw some money at it. The problem with the latter is once ad budgets start getting cut, share of voice advertising is the first thing to go.

Why do I bring this up?

Because as the economy slows down it should come as no surprise that ad budgets are dropping, publishers are seeing less money going around, and we will be seeing some of our favorite, and complete time suck websites, start disappearing in the coming months. Unlike the literal demand driven methods used in paid search, banner advertising should be another name for share of voice advertising. Most of the time, it’s a 100% waste of money. Wait, that doesn’t make any sense.

Let’s move on. With the explosion of behavioral targeting technologies amongst the ad networks, take Blue Lithium for example, the display advertising industry bought itself a little time. It changed its traditional billboard mentality to one of purchase intent: If someone online is looking at Yahoo! Autos, they must be interested in a car. Let’s show them some or all of the following: New car ads, car insurance ads, used car ads, stolen car ads, or ads for Steve’s Rent n Roll Dubz. Seems pretty damn ingenious right?

Wrong. Millions of people use Yahoo! Autos to read about cars, look at pictures, waste time, etc. There is no predictor of behavior that exists here. Some people just like cars, ya know? If you want to argue with me, please do.

No matter what the online behavior is, there is no way to predict what people are looking for. Look at Google’s adWords content network for example. 20-50% of traffic generated through the network is the result of fraud. Contextual search ads, the textual equivalent to behaviorally targeted display ads, are nearly completely worthless. Like a share of voice campaign being cut, search content network ads are also the first to go when budgets drop. Google is completely fine with serving ads for Jimmy’z Cremation Services next to your cousin’s sister’s boyfriend’s dog’s obituary. No one will ever click on that ad with any intent to purchase. Though Jimmy still gets charged at the end of the month. How does that happen?

I think the solution to the problem is simple. Ask people what they’re in the market for. Before “technology” becomes so intrusive that networks are reading our emails, watching every site we visit, recording everything we buy online, and monitoring our actions on social networks, let’s just correct the system and create an ad network where people can define what they’re interested in. No more wasted impressions. Like the offline world, advertising is the means through which the media we consume is paid for. I understand that commercials will be run during the Dolphins game. I know that I will get a pee break 7 minutes into 24. I also understand that my favorite websites, especially the ones that don’t sell something I can have shipped to my house, are going to need to pay the bills. So why not just ask me what I’m planning on buying in, oh, the next 12 months.

Let’s see. There’s a Porsche, a mansion, a sailboat, a great dane, and probably a few bottles of vodka with sparklers on top. See, wasn’t that easy?

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